Southeast Climate Consortium Approach

The Southeast Climate Consortium has developed an adopted some common methodologies in our approach to identify climate variability patterns in temperature and precipitation associated with ENSO events and the assessment of related agricultural impacts.

ENSO, or the El Niño Southern Oscillation, has three phases: a warm, or El Niño, phase; a cold, or La Niña, phase; and a neutral phase. Based upon historical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, we can designate each year as a warm, cold, or neutral phase event. Research has shown the different phases of ENSO to have unique, quantifiable impacts on the Southeast United States and the rest of the world. We apply this research, using historical climate data, to understand these impacts and identify areas where they can be expected.

El Niño; photo (c) NASA Earth Observatory

We utilize nested, coupled, regional climate models to explore the process of using an ENSO forecast system to provide tailored output for various socioeconomic sectors in small regions, primarily the Southeast United States and Southeast South America. However, these models only have skill in predictions of seasonal climate anomalies; further work is needed to resolve the complete spectrum of anomalous climatic behavior required for agricultural and climate study purposes. Thus, additional methods of "quotdownscaling"quot the model results are utilized to produce worthwhile results.

Additional research at the Southeast Climate Consortium includes the integration of weather generators with climate models; the assessment of agricultural impact through the analysis of historical crop yields and simulated yield potentials; understanding forestry risk and its minimization; water quality assessment and policy analysis; and the development of crop management optimization toolkits and programs to explore optimal management options under different ENSO conditions and optimization criteria.