Climate Phase Forecast
Updated: August 6, 2008
The Pacific Ocean returned to Neutral in June. Neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of 2008.
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Current East Pacific SST Analysis |
Current East Pacific SST Anomaly Analysis |
After a winter and spring with central and eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures along the equator colder than normal, a condition known as La Niña, the Pacific has now returned to near normal. Near normal sea surface temperatures in this area of the Pacific is known as Neutral conditions. Historically, neutral conditions occur roughly half the time. At other times, this area of the Pacific can swing into periods where it is much warmer than normal, known as El Niño, or much colder than normal, referred to as La Niña. As stated above, the Pacific Ocean was in a fairly strong La Niña last winter and spring.
Neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of 2008 and possibly into 2009. In the past month, however, the far eastern portion of the tropical Pacific has continued to warm and is actually a little warmer than normal. While this warming is nowhere near enough to be considered El Niño at the present time, it does virtually rule out a return to La Niña.
What does a return to Neutral conditions in the Pacific mean for our climate in the next 1-3 months? Without a well-defined El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific, there is no indication that temperatures or rainfall will be either above normal or below normal in the near future. That means that near normal climate is the best forecast as we transition from summer into fall, but that cooler, warmer, wetter, or drier are all still likely, just like any year. The state of the Pacific Ocean does have a known influence on the Atlantic hurricane season. A developing El Niño has been shown to decrease hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Unless the Pacific warms appreciably in the near future, we cannot anticipate this decrease. For more information on climate impacts in the Southeast, see the latest climate outlook.
The SECC tracks the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean using the JMA index. For more information and current JMA values, see the following link:
Other El Niño/La Niña Forecasts
Below are links to El Niño/La Niña forecasts from other centers in the U.S. and worldwide. Caution: the SECC may not agree with their forecasts and/or classification criteria.